The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released research yesterday highlighting that the recession has ended.

This topic has sparked quite a bit of debate amongst our team members here at HSBC, and we imagine there are very different views amongst our small business members also.

The following three articles present different perspectives from the newswires:

The Independent

Daily Mail

The Times

What are your thoughts? Do you think we're on our way out of the recession? Or are we being lulled into a false sense of security?

It was essential that this years Budget really focused on helping businesses of all sizes weather the current economic downturn. It was pleasing therefore that there were many positive initiatives announced, some of which really do help businesses improve their cash flow, access credit and trade more effectively. Do you think any of these will be particularly valuable to your business?

For full commentary from HSBC's Senior Economist Mark Berrisford-Smith take a look at the attachment.

Monthly economic commentary for April 2009 has been released.

Although the economy remains mired in recession, there has been a subtle shift in some of the recent commentary on current trends.

The last set of national accounts revealed widespread destocking by businesses which is a one-off adjustment and is replaced by the need to restock, the first step in the recovery process.

Is this reflective of your business at this point in the downturn?

Read the article in full article attached.

Many of my customers seem to work extremely hard in order to make their business a success. Today, I read a report that suggests that perhaps some of them are working too hard!

A recent study by telecoms firm Unicom asked business owners whether they would be able to take a holiday this summer. 42% of them said that they would not be able to because of work pressures that they are under. Another study showed that UK entrepreneurs work an average of 50 hours per week!

Despite this, I am always amazed by the amount of passion and energy shown by my customers when they talk about their business. While this enthusiasm for their business keeps them going, I do wonder whether it affects their home life or affects the quality of their work.

I don’t think I could work to the same high standard if I worked 50 hour weeks, non-stop all year without a holiday, so I don’t know how small business owners cope with such a heavy workload!

I would be interested to hear what the workloads of people on this site are, from both self-employed business owners as well as employees, and whether you think that 50 hours per week with no holidays is simply too much work!

Martin

Rejection can be handled in different ways. Some will become disheartened by it, and may give up what they are looking for. Others come out of it with a positive outlook, and go on to bigger and better things.

The latter is exactly what Shaun Pulfrey did. After being rejected on Dragons’ Den for his Tangle Teezer idea, he did not give up his dream of landing a huge deal. The Tangle Teezer smoothes knotted hair easily but did not impress the Dragons’. They did not think it could be a commercial success so quickly ruled themselves out.

However, Shaun kept going and has now landed a deal with Boots that will see the Tangle Teezer stocked in 600 stores nationwide. His turnover is now projected to be around £1.5 million over the next year, meaning if the Dragons’ had invested, they would be making a tidy profit.

This made me think about the customers that I see. Would they give up if they were turned down at the first hurdle? What would they do if they encountered a set back? I would like to think that most of them would keep going if they believed that it was the right thing to do.

I would be interested to see what readers of this blog would do when faced with rejection, or hear any stories of how you have overcome it in the past. Please feel free to either post your own blog describing your own experiences, or reply to this blog.

Of course, I’ve been rejected many times over many things, but that’s a story for another day.

Martin

A branch I know well is next to a large shopping centre, and during this so called ‘credit crunch’ I have often wondered how the retail sector, which is important to all of us (especially people like myself who have a fondness for clothes) has been affected by the tightening of the economy.

Today I stumbled across a statistic that said that retail rents are falling at the fastest rate for 15 years and that the midsummer retail report says that this is the ‘worst retail market since the early 1990s.’ Perhaps this is not surprising, as peoples disposable incomes are dropping, making it harder to splash out on the little luxuries in life.

However, amidst this gloomy outlook, there are some real success stories within the retail sector, especially online. Mintel forecasts that online retail spending in Europe will triple by 2012, with companies such as Amazon growing at a rapid rate. Does this mean the end of the high street? Will the large shopping centre by the branch turn into an empty shell, or worse, yet more fancy city centre flats!?

I wonder how this will affect the businesses coming to see me? In the future will I have less new shops and more new online retailers coming to see me? Only time will tell, but I think that evidence of the past few months has shown that even in this slowing economy, retailers can be successful.

Martin

Recently when I headed down to the shops, it was nearly £1.50 for my favourite type of bread. It does not seem long ago that it was less than £1 a loaf. After leaving the shops in my diesel car, I went to fill up at the local petrol station. One litre of diesel was over £1.30. Only a few months ago, the price of diesel was pretty much level with petrol, and being sold for far less than £1 per litre.

Things such as this make me think about the businesses we deal with everyday and how this must be affecting them. For example, a delivery company using diesel vans. If their fuel costs have risen by 30% in the last few months, then how is this affecting the costs they have to pass on to their customers? How does this affect the amount of business that they get? Do they have to have smaller profit margins in order to attract business? For companies that delivery goods to customers, have they had to pass on the extra delivery costs to their customers? This chain can go on and on and it shows how changes in one aspect of the economy, can have a much wider impact than the sector which it directly influences.

A report today says that fuel and oil prices are going to remain at this higher level for the foreseeable future, the implications on small businesses will be huge. I hope my customers can adapt to this new environment, and prove that although higher prices cause challenges for businesses, entrepreneurs can use innovation to turn these into an advantage.

Martin